10, July, 2009

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    Front Page
    

Pyongyang's cyber-terrorism hits home

North Korea's audacious cyber-offensive this week at high-profile computer systems in South Korea and the United States is clearly linked to its earlier nuclear and missile tests. The next step is for Pyongyang to perfect its ability to deliver weapons of mass destruction to carefully selected targets in countries where information systems have been disabled. - Donald Kirk (Jul 9,'09)

A leaner, meaner Iranian regime
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has broken all the rules that govern the art of politics in Iran, and the Islamic Republic's culture of factional politics has now collapsed before his commanding presence. This new political reality is going to severely disappoint those who hoped the recent rioting and mayhem would spell the end of the hardline regime. - Mahan Abedin (Jul 9,'09)

SUN WUKONG
No question, Hu's in charge
When President Hu Jintao dashed home from the Group of Eight summit in Italy to personally oversee the aftermath of the bloody ethnic riots in Xinjiang, it may have been due to a loophole in Beijing's military command structure. That Hu is the only politburo member authorized to deploy China's army is a situation that has to be addressed. - Wu Zhong (Jul 9,'09)

Xinjiang - China's energy gateway
Beijing's concern at the unrest in Xinjiang extends beyond the threat to its own authority. The vast region, already an essential supplier of oil and gas to the rest of China, is an important border gateway for energy supplies from its numerous Central and South Asia neighbors.
- Robert M Cutler (Jul 9,'09)

The same - but different - in Indonesia
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono appears headed to a landslide mandate for a second term after promising continuity. His opponents promised a different brand of continuity - one that ignored just how much Indonesia has changed in the past five years. - Gary LaMoshi (Jul 9,'09)

Indian might met with Chinese threats
For decades, India has backed down from Chinese intimidation. But that's now changing, evident by Delhi's continued moves to heighten defenses along its disputed Arunachal border. This is not going over well in China, prompting Beijing to angrily remind New Delhi of its perceived superiority. - Sudha Ramachandran (Jul 9,'09)

Food fight in East Timor
East Timor Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao is under fire over allegations he awarded a rice contract to a company that listed his daughter as a shareholder. The opposition isn't backing down on its calls for an inquiry, part of an ongoing effort to tarnish the image of the new country's resistance hero. The charges also threaten to spiral East Timor into new bouts of political instability. - Simon Roughneen (Jul 9,'09)

Constitutional crisis in Turkey escalates
The power struggle between Turkey's Islamist-rooted ruling party and its staunchly secular armed forces has escalated over a new law allowing officers to be tried in civilian courts. The government says the law is needed for European Union membership, but an angry military says it is an unconstitutional attempt to erode its power base in the wake of an alleged coup plot. (Jul 9,'09)



Mixed signals over Chinese missiles
As concerns grow in India, the United States and Japan over China's expanding ballistic missile force, the US has recognized that it has to do a much better job when it comes to the broad topic of space intelligence. - Peter J Brown (Jul 8,'09)

THE MOGAMBO GURU
Abandon ship
Stock prices soared in six bear market rallies during the first three years of the Great Depression. Our present rally is already higher than four of these in percentage gains and longer than all but the biggest and the best. We're coming to the edge of Previous Known Highs at hyperspace speed. Time to abandon ship!!! (Jul 8,'09)

Baseless expenditures
The United States empire of bases - at US$102 billion a year already the world's costliest military enterprise - just got a good deal more expensive with the projected $736 million new American war embassy to be built in Islamabad, Pakistan. For other countries getting a bit weary of the American military presence on their soil: cash in now, before it's too late. - Chalmers Johnson (Jul 8,'09)

SINOGRAPH
Beware the Tiananmen reflex
The bloody riots in remote northwestern China set off a knee-jerk assumption: if there are dead people on the streets, it must be Beijing's fault. It is more likely that the brewing hatred among ethnic Uyghurs for the majority Han Chinese was funneled into the protests by anti-government organizations. A brutal police intervention only made things worse. - Francesco Sisci (Jul 8,'09)

Obama discredits Iran 'green light'
Responding to claims that Washington has given Israel approval to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, United States President Barack Obama insists Washington's position remains unchanged. Nonetheless, debate over Vice President Joe Biden's comments that Israel could determine for itself how to deal with the perceived threats from Iran isn't going away. - Jim Lobe and Ali Gharib (Jul 8,'09)

Goldman good but not that bad
There is no denying that Goldman Sachs workers are far smarter than the average George W Bush flunkie, but attributing them the power to control every major world market is stretching a point too far. Even more invidious, such claims discourage people from actually feeling that they can control their own destiny. - Julian Delasantellis (Jul 8,'09)

Indonesia votes for more of the same
If early forecasts are accurate, incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will be the first Indonesian president elected in a single round of voting, avoiding a two-candidate run-off. With a resounding win, Yudhoyono's administration can push through economic reforms and further consolidate the country's democratic transition. - Megawati Wijaya and Shawn W Crispin (Jul 8,'09)

Ghost of Marx haunts China's riots
As Marxism dims as the dominant ideology in China, the sense of political equality is also fading away. Common people aren't really considered the owners of the country anymore, and workers are no longer a respected class. Capitalists now sit at the government's table as the socialist identity of the Chinese gradually falls to pieces. The riots in Urumqi may be the start of something much, much bigger. - Jian Junbo (Jul 7,'09)

Inside the unquiet west
The violence in the Uyghur-populated Xinjiang region has caught both Beijing and outside observers by surprise. China has been quick, though, in responding with an explanation similar to the one used for the Tibetan revolt of last year: the foreign-based diaspora is plotting to disrupt social harmony. - Sreeram Chaulia (Jul 7,'09)

THE ROVING EYE
Go ahead, Bibi - drop the bomb
As unclenched fists go, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu's government and that of the newly empowered administration of the "mullahtariat" in Iran now seem to be locked in a free-for-all cage match - regardless of United States President Barack Obama's self-styled "refereeing" positioning. - Pepe Escobar (Jul 7,'09)

US revives talk of Iran-Taliban ties
Despite the lack of evidence or a plausible motive, the Barack Obama administration is revisiting the previous US administration's charges that Iran is arming and training the Taliban. Although the allegations could damage hopes of Iranian cooperation in the Afghan conflict, some members of the US government see them as a golden opportunity to pressure Tehran over its nuclear program. - Gareth Porter (Jul 7,'09)

THE BEAR'S LAIR
US adds to its cost burden
The US government could soon be setting prices in as much as 40% of the economy, putting it on a par with the more liberal countries of Eastern Europe under communism, or like France in the 1980s. The outlook is for huge long-term costs on US living standards. - Martin Hutchinson (Jul 7,'09)

Indian defense spices things up
The world's hottest chili pepper, which is grown in India, could soon come to the country's defense. Military scientists aim to use this super-hot chili in hand grenades for use in counter-insurgency operations and riot control. But it doesn't stop there. They're also cooking up plans to use it to ward off elephants and warm up soldiers posted at the world's highest battlefield. - Sudha Ramachandran (Jul 7,'09)

Crossing the Helmand
The ambitious goals of the United States surge in Afghanistan - to drive the Taliban out, curtail the opium trade and win hearts and minds - faces a stern test in Helmand province. By starting the offensive in a Taliban stronghold, the army has ignored a basic tenet of counter-insurgency warfare - to begin in districts where insurgent support is weak. - Brian M Downing (Jul 7,'09)

A town braces for Taliban battle
As United States tanks, aircraft and troops roll out for Operation Dagger Thrust in Afghanistan's Helmand province, war-weary locals are skeptical about the "surge". They say the US's new tactics and hardware will be more deadly for civilians than insurgents, as despite promises to fight "until the last breath", locals believe the Taliban will merely slip away and regroup. - Mohammad Ilyas Dayee and Aziz Ahmad Tassak (Jul 7,'09)

Mukherjee budget bows to politics
Indian stocks tanked after Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee delivered a give-away budget that showed little concern for reform and pointed to a grossly understated yet still frightening 6.8% fiscal deficit. Investors should not have been surprised. The earlier railways budget had already pointed the way. - Kunal Kumar Kundu (Jul 7,'09)

A moment of truth for Obama in Moscow
Through a series of labyrinthine maneuverings, Russia has sought leverage in US-Russia relations by offering greater cooperation to President Barack Obama over Afghanistan. It is possible that at a juncture when the overall US-Russia relationship is lurching dangerously close to breakdown, cooperation in the Hindu Kush might provide a much-needed leitmotif for Monday's summit in Moscow. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jul 3,'09)

<IT WORLD>
Fast Firefox comes with bugs
The latest version of Mozilla's Firefox web browser, which attracted 5 million downloads in its first day of release, will please most users. Others may wish they had held back until the plethora of bugs are fixed. (Jul 3,'09)
Martin J Young surveys the week's developments in computing, science, gaming and gizmos.

SAUDI BOMBSHELLS, Part 3
FBI chief defended Saudis
The pro-Saudi bias of former FBI director Louis Freeh during the investigation of the 1996 Khobar Towers terror bombing in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 United States airmen shut down a probe in which Osama bin Laden was clearly implicated. Had the case run its course, the US may not have been so brutally blindsided by 9/11. - Gareth Porter (Jul 3,'09)
This is the final article in a three-part report.

Part 1: Al-Qaeda excluded from suspect list
Part 2: Why US officials blamed Iran

US Marines to 'drink lots of tea'
The new strategy of the United States in Afghanistan is now in play, including a troop surge, fresh attempts to curtail the poppy trade and a mission to get to know the locals. Questions linger, though, about the feasibility of concentrating US forces in areas where the Taliban have established full control. - Ali Gharib (Jul 3,'09)

CHAN AKYA
Raining on the Blue Fox
The shine has started wearing off the "Green Shoots" story that has propped up stock markets and helped various countries pretend that further developments aren't imminent. As various US states approach different stages of bankruptcy, the time for governments to change policies is dawning. (Jul 3,'09)

INTERVIEW
Missing the point on Myanmar
The international community continues to pursue the wrong path in Myanmar, argues Burmese historian Thant Myint-U, as United Nations secretary general Ban Ki-moon begins his visit to the country on Friday. Instead of focusing on interlocution between the military junta and the opposition, it's the ongoing civil war and devastated economy that should first be addressed. Lost opportunities, he says, are legion. - Charles McDermid (Jul 3,'09)

China's rogue regimes play up
North Korea's willingness to export high-tech weapons and know-how to Myanmar and other reclusive, anti-Western regimes has raised regional security concerns and could launch a new Southeast Asian arms race. If Pyongyang is indeed helping Myanmar achieve its nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions, China may shut the door on its troublesome client states. - Brian McCartan (Jul 2,'09)

Manmohan hits the ground running
Sitting in an unprecedented comfort zone, India’s Congress-led government has borrowed from the United States' 100-day hoopla to set its own short-term, capsule-like targets. This has given New Delhi the illusion of speed, with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's ministers running in overdrive. The most stunning evidence of this is Thursday's landmark ruling on homosexuality. - Santwana Bhattacharya (Jul 2,'09)

Dollar's future in US hands
China's moves to have its exports paid for in yuan should not be interpreted as a push to make the yuan a reserve currency for international trade. The US dollar will continue to play this role - if the United States puts its own financial house in order. - Henry C K Liu (Jul 1,'09)
David P Goldman
(Jul 3, '09)
The US may have the worst of both worlds: currency devaluation and price deflation, as in the 1930s.



Asia's growth
hopes crumble

Early hopes that Asia would be largely immune from the global financial crisis have been shattered as a collapse in export markets has thrown millions of people out of work and wrecked prospects millions more had of escaping poverty. - Chee Yoke Heong

No end in sight to
US jobless rise

The continued rise in US unemployment underlines the failure of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's unprecedented aggressive monetary policy to deliver the economic recovery that he promised at each interest rate cut. - Hossein Askari and Noureddine Krichene

FROM THE BLOG
Goods out of fashion
If everyone hypothetically wanted to buy securities rather than goods, prices of goods would crash. Something like this is happening, of course. - David Goldman

THE MOGAMBO GURU

Double-digit doom
While some pundits still squawk about the risk of deflation, the recent explosion in US money supply growth could mean inflation being much worse than in the 1970s, when the prime rate hit 21.5%! That means poverty, empty stomachs - and soaring gold prices!!




MARKET RAP
Shanghai sets pace
Shanghai-listed stocks continue to defy concerns of an overheated market and an absence of strengthening overseas demand for Chinese goods. Across the Taiwan Strait, investors are also still driving up prices. (Jul 3,'09)
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.


[Re Beware the Tiananmen reflex, Jul 8] Some foolish Indians may experience glee/schadenfreude upon hearing of the Xinjiang riots, but all the sensible ones are trembling with fear because China right now is in exactly the kind of situation where it needs a foreign enemy to beat up.
Amit Sharma
Cincinnati, OH, USA
   Go to Letters to the Editor

On The Edge
Pakistan is big, populous, has natural resources and got independence from Britain sooner. Singapore is tiny, devoid of resources, has a small population and gained its independence much later (1965 from Malaysia). Out of the two, Pakistan by now should be more prosperous and strong, given its clear advantages.
MonsoonWind
   Go to the readers' forum topic, A tale of two ex-British colonies



1. Abandon ship

2. How wrong can you get?

3. Mixed signals over Chinese missiles

4. Baseless expenditures

5. Ghost of Marx haunts China's riots

6. Beware the Tiananmen reflex

7. Obama discredits Iran 'green light'

8. Go ahead, Bibi - drop the bomb

9. US adds to its cost burden

10. Goldman good but not that bad

(24 hours to 11:59pm ET,July 8, 2009)




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