NUMBERS CAN AND DO LIE

Finally! The mainstream media is discussing the shortcoming of Fielding Percentage, albeit from the lips of Theo Epstein.

The Sox are far more concerned with the percentage of plays that should be made than they are with errors, and the two are not necessarily the same.

For example: Say 100 balls are hit to shortstop and all 100 should produce outs. One shortstop makes five errors, while the other makes 10. But the first shortstop - for other reasons, like range - failed to make an additional 10 plays that are scored hits. The first shortstop has the better fielding percentage, but the second has produced more outs. And the Red Sox, as Epstein explains it, are interested in outs.

Hopefully, other MSM outlets like NESN will start discussing Defensive Efficiency and at the very least, have it as a supplement to Fielding Percentage as they have done with Batting Average and OPB. Fielding Percentage is a good measurement but not the end all, it is made out to be when discussing glove work.

ALL-STAR BREAK SHORTS

* David Ortiz’s injury should prompt the Sox to inquire about Adam Dunn.

* After 1999, the All-Star Game has been “dead to me.”

* Congratulations Springfield, Vermont! My adopted small home state will be hosting two big events this month - the Simpson’s movie premiere and the Fed Cup in Stowe.

PLEASE REFORM THE DRAFT

It should be no surprise that both the Red Sox and MFY made two of the biggest splashes in the international free market for kids. Even though I think the buying 16-year-olds is morally questionable, not to mention the buscones, it is the culture in many countries and who am I to judge them. My baseball issue is that the process does not redistribute talent for the betterment of the game.

No matter how one stands on small market versus big market teams, revenue sharing, the luxury tax, etc., I think we can all agree that the draft is in place to allocate the best young talent to the worse teams. It is supposed to assist in creating competitive balance among the clubs. Unfortunately, it fails every year.

The draft primarily falls short for two reasons:
1. It does not include players outside of the U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico.
2. It does not provide any support or an alternative to passing over a player due to financial concerns.

Adrerw Miller should not have fallen to the Tigers last year and beaten the Sox on last Friday. He should be pitching for the Royals. Jered Weaver should be in Petco not the OC. And Dice-K should have been subject to the draft as well. The only mechanism that is solely designed to level the playing field by distributing the best talent is extremely flawed.

I am certainly not knowledgeable enough to offer up a solution - whether it be trading of draft picks, changing the posting process, setting a minimum age requirement. But many people are, and they need to stop neglecting the issue for the best interest of the game.

***

As an aside, how much fun would a draft day be the Wednesday after the All-Star game that would allow teams to trade picks and included playoff impacting players like Dice-K. Talk about ratings and MLB could broadcast it on its own channel. It would be huge!

RED SOX TRIPLE PLAY

1. Since inter-league play ended, the Sox have won only five out of the last thirteen games. They were swept in Seattle, split with Texass and took three from the Rays at home, and then got swept in Det-Riot City. On the surface, we should be concerned, but the Sox went 1-6 in one run games during this recent stretch. One run outcomes are usually a function of luck and the pen. The Sox pen has been great so the Local Nine have just been unlucky.

2. Even though Clay Buchholz gave up a homer to left on a 93 mph fastball that tailed over the heart of the plate to Joey Votto, he pitched well. He had nice separation 12-15 mph between his fastball and change, but did not have feel for the big deuce in just one inning of work. CB pitched like Keith Foulke v.2004 - a plus change with an above average fastball. As for the other results, Buchholz struck out Max Ramirez - all strikes on the changeup. Craig Stansberry ground out to short on a changeup. Geovany Soto struck out on a change as well. Buchholz is the real deal.

3. Ken Rosenthal thinks Javy Vazquez could be on the trading block with Mark Buehrle‘s deal. If so, the Sox could be on him hard. Vazquez was their first choice after the 2003 season. And the Olde Towne Team could be one of the favorites, along with the Mets, because: 1) Javy can not be traded to the a Western division team without his approval and will not be, 2) Both can absorb the $34.5 million - and may find it a bargain - owed to the starter over the next three seasons, 3) Each has expendable prospects (Lastings Milledge, Jacoby Ellsbury), due to organizational depth, to deal. Also, Kenny Williams and Omar Minaya were talking during the Futures Game yesterday.

MINOR LEAGUE RAMBLINGS

* Bubba Bell got the call as did Justin Masterson, but what about Aaron Bates? He is already 23. Bates seems to have the right approach and the Sea Dogs have Eric Crozier at first. Crozier was a prospect around six years ago in the Jays system.

* Clay Buchholz pitching out of the pen is likely not anything more than tempering his innings so he can perform in the Futures Game. The Sox are again (Buchholz pitched against Clemens on ESPN) trying to expose Buchholz to the big stage as part of his development when possible. It is more telling that Masterson gives the SeaDogs six starters. Buchholz will be in RI shortly.

* I want to see if Garza, Adam Miller (Indians), Clay Buchholz (Red Sox) and Ross Ohlendorf (Yankees) can end up doing whart Jonathan Papelbon did for Boston in 2005. Me to Mr. Gammons.

* Nick Hagadone, Caleb Clay and Jose Capellan give the Spinners an interesting trio in the rotation. And if that is not enough, Ryan Kalish could be the best athlete in the system and he is hitting.

* Of course, it is risky to invest $1.5 million in a kid - Michael Almanzar. But it appears that the Sox knew him better than anyone else. The Olde Towne Team’s level of risk may be less than other clubs. The Sox continue to be aggressive in the Dominican. Last year, they gave five-toolers, Engel Beltre $.575 million and Oscar Tejada $.525 million. Tejada appears to be adjusting better than Beltra to date.

* For the third year in a row, the Sox signed a player from Taiwan for six figures. This year’s, Che-Hsuan Lin, seems to be the best out of the three. He reportedly turned down a better deal from the Mariners to play for the Sox. According to sources, he has Ichiro type speed out of the box and an arm that nearly matches his legs.

* Watch the Futures Game today at 4pm. on ESPN2.

THE OTHER SOX AND MARK BUEHRLE

The White Sox are crazy to refuse Mark Buehrle a no-trade provision. He is leaving at least $30 million on the table. The guy probably just doesn’t want to sign a great deal for the club and be dealt over the winter to, say, the Mets for Lastings Millege and Phillip Humber or to one of the L.A. teams.

Buehrle could demand a trade after the 2008 season like his current teammate, Javy Vazquez did to get out of Arizona back in 2005, but why put yourself and your family through all of that when you are giving up a small fortune. The White Sox are being totally unreasonable.

Buster Olney comments that the Other Sox stance seems to be in part because…

The trade value of prospective free agents, like Buehrle, has plummeted so much, general managers are saying, that in most cases, a team will actually get a better return by keeping the player and receiving the draft pick compensation when the player signs elsewhere.

It is factor that needs to be weighed heavier than in the past, although the club might not receive a first-round if the free agent signs with a team that finishes in the bottom half of the standings. In that case, the club being compensated receives a second-round pick, in most cases, but now that pick is going to be around selection 65-100 in 2008 instead of 45-60 back in 2006.

The new CBA rule that states…

…teams that lose Type B free agents, which had previously received a pick from the signing club, will now get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds.

Since the signing club of a Type B free agent does not have to give up a pick, almost every Type B free agent will be offered arbitration, the player will decline and will sign with another team this winter. It is a win-win-win for all parties and a flaw in the new CBA. One of the consequences of this clause is a huge supplemental first-round, which pushes back the second and making it less valuable. (The compensation for not signing your first-round pick starting in 2008 could also push back the second.)

It has been long rumored that Buehrle will sign with the Cards. If he does and St. Louis continue to play poorly, the Other Sox will get a supplemental and the Cards second-rounder likely around 90-100. With that in mind, Kenny Williams should just give him the damn no trade clause. If that is a deal breaker, which it should not be, then trade Buehrle. The likely draft picks and their bonuses are not worth more than a pair of B prospects.

ADAM DUNN COULD BE A RED SOX

The Reds will likely trade Adam Dunn this summer. They should not wait until next year because Dunn will have full and partial no-trade power that would severely decrease the Reds leverage in negotiations with other clubs. The time is now to move the slugger, but to who?

Given Dunn’s defensive shortfalls, he best fits as a DH. The Twins and L.A. need help at the position, but both frown on high strikeout hitters. Thus, it is unlikely that Terry Ryan or Bill Stoneman would meet the Reds price for a summer sublet. The MFY are an option with all of their health issues, although a long shot since they have been unwilling to part with young pitchers.

In the N.L., the Padres are not going to put Dunn in the huge PETCO leftfield. Nomar moving to third for James Loney pretty much takes the Dodgers out of the equation. Arizona is unlikely to give up on their young players. To varying degrees, the Phillies, Mets, Cubs and Brewers are set in left and at first.

The market for Dunn is small and the Red Sox could capitalize. At the right price (a pair of B pitching prospects) and inking Dunn to an two-year extension makes sense. He would start at first in 2008 and beyond with Youk moving across the diamond to third. Dave Magadan, Ortiz and Manny can show Dunn how to use the Monster, which could cut down on the strikeouts increasing his BA, OBP and productivity.

Right now, Dunn is a better insurance policy than WMP and Hinske against Lowell’s hand, Youk’s quad, Drew being made out of glass, Manny’s hammy, and Big Papi’s legs. He also gives the Sox another long ball threat. And over only two months, Tito can find enough playing time for Dunn and everyone else.

A NEW APPROACH FOR THE RAYS

Even if Crawford, Young and Upton do not develop into superstars over the next few seasons, the Rays are hedging their bets with Evan Longoria and Reid Brignac at third and short, respectfully, who are killing Double-A pitching. Two out of these five should become the lineup anchors in 2009 with the others likely providing league average production. The Rays offense should be fine. And if James Shields is for real, then Tampa could have two top of the rotation starters in a couple of years not to mention Jeff Niemann and Andy Sonnanstine in eating up AAA. They should be playoff contenders in 2009 or 2010 like the Brewers this season.

After that the Rays may need to reshuffle the cards, as players become arbitration eligible. With that in mind, the Rays might want to frontload a contract for a veteran free agent this winter. For example, a four-year deal for $13 million in 2008, $10 million in 2009, $9 million in 2010 and $8 million and no state income tax is worth more than Ted Lilly’s deal with the Cubs. The norm is to backload contracts, but this kind of deal would smooth out payroll for the Rays and give them a competitive advantage in the free agent market.

BREAKING NEWS FROM BIZ OF BASEBALL

The Red Sox have entered into an agreement with the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball. It will be centered around scouting and baseball development in Japan and the Pacific Rim.

This can only assist the Sox in acquiring Japanese players, but without the details of the contract (player movement, sharing scouting info, etc.), it is difficult to assess the impact this will have on the Olde Towne Team. It is worth noting that Marines are managed by Bobby Valentine.

JULIO LUGO AND NO HOMERS

Julio Lugo is not a walk machine like Youkilis or a slugger like Wily Mo Pena, so he need to make solid contact to be a valuable offensive player. Unfortunately, Julio Lugo's line drive percentage has dropped 6.2 points from 2005 down to 13.9%, according to Hardball Times. His struggles do not appear to be a function of bad luck. And with two or more automatic outs in the lineup recently, the best way to put crooked numbers on the scoreboard is to hit dingers. As we know, the Local Nine has had trouble goin' yard (only 81 HR in 81 games, which is even below last year), and hence have had difficultly scoring runs. It is time for Manny or Big Papi to carry this team into the Break.

The Sox might want to try this...

...why the hell not.